Dr Gareth Evans discusses the pitfalls and possibilities that come with leading a minority government
It’s been a year of historic change in Welsh politics. Between Senedd reform, Welsh Labour’s election collapse, and Plaid Cymru’s rise to lead Welsh government, many of the familiar paradigms of Welsh politics are now reconfigured. Yet, within this changing environment, a perennial theme remains: a minority government in Cardiff Bay.
Each of the seven Senedd elections since 1999 have produced minority situations, leading to a mix of coalition and minority governments over the last twenty-seven years. This articleconsiders what lessons previous Welsh Labour minority governments can provide to Plaid Cymru, which presently finds itself six seats short of a Senedd majority.
Plaid Cymru’s experience in minority
To date, the new Plaid Cymru government has been faced with a strong opposition group in the Senedd. On 14 July, the government lost the vote on its supplementary budget after negotiations with Welsh Labour broke down and they voted against the motion. This came less than a month after the government lost two non-binding votes on motions sponsored by the Welsh Conservatives and Welsh Labour, respectively. These outcomes quickly educated Plaid Cymru on the vulnerability of minority arrangements.
Syniadau uchelgeisiol, awdurdodol a mentrus.
Ymunwch â ni i gyfrannu at wneud Cymru gwell.
This selection of early defeats come despite the new First Minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, regularly declaring his desire for a mature and ‘cooperative approach’ to working with other parties. His government’s success will depend on its ability to convert this intention into a deliverable reality. Going forward, the government’s legislative agenda does contain areas where agreements could be made with other parties – the challenge for the government will be to negotiate their support while maintaining control of its financial and legislative priorities.
This selection of early defeats come despite the new First Minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, regularly declaring his desire for a mature and ‘cooperative approach’ to working with other parties.
Some unsettlement in the opening months of a new Senedd is not unusual, nor is it necessarily a prediction of how circumstances will develop in the future. This is a period when parties, both in government and opposition, set out their demands and attempt to dictate parliamentary dynamics. The new dynamics of the seventh Senedd have raised the stakes for all parties, as they attempt to establish themselves and advance their agendas.
As a minority government, however, Plaid Cymru are more vulnerable to opposition activities. One of the realities of governing in minority is the absence of the usually strong honeymoon period seen by majority governments. For Plaid Cymru to maintain momentum and deliver the full extent of its First 100 Days agenda, it will require cooperation from a political partner.
Making minority government work
As I have written recently, a study of previous Seneddau shows there is no one-size-fits-all solution for ensuring the success of minority governments in Wales.
Each of the instances of Welsh Labour minority government was slightly different – either in the choice of political partner, or the longevity or formality of its agreements with other parties. For example, Welsh Labour were able to pass five annual Budgets during the fourth Senedd (2011-16) through one-off agreements with either Plaid Cymru or the Welsh Lib Dems. Compare this to the sixth Senedd (2021-26), where Welsh Labour entered into a formal three-year Co-operation Agreement with Plaid Cymru. In each of these examples, the central factor to the success of Welsh Labour minority governments was adaptability.
First, the Welsh Labour experience in minority government displayed a relatively pragmatic approach to navigating changing political environments. Over its twenty-seven years in power, the party relied on a selection of substantive minority and formal minority arrangements. Each came with its own benefits and trade-offs.
Substantive minority arrangements are where a government forms short-term, often issue-specific, agreements with different political partners over the course of a parliament. They often require fewer concessions to the political partner but provide less long-term certainty for the government. Conversely, formal minority arrangements include longer-term, contractual style agreements. These require greater compromise from the government but provide the benefits of increasing legislative success. Welsh Labour practiced both forms of minority government, at different times, in response to the political environment in the Senedd.
Second, the practice of minority government is inherently linked to Senedd seat share and the number of potential partners with ideological proximity to the government. A government with two or more ideologically proximate partners can allow substantive arrangements to function relatively easily. This was an important factor in Welsh Labour’s success in the fourth and fifth Seneddau.
However, where the number of potential partners is reduced, the success of substantive arrangements becomes less certain. This was displayed during the negotiations for the final Budget of the sixth Senedd, when there was only one ideologically proximate partner available: Plaid Cymru. This both heightened the stakes for negotiations, and raised the possibility that the annual Budget might not pass.
Gofod i drafod, dadlau, ac ymchwilio.
Cefnogwch brif felin drafod annibynnol Cymru.
Third, the dynamics of minority arrangements are also connected to the strength of the opposition group. A relatively weak opposition group allows substantive arrangements to work effectively – as seen in the fourth Senedd – however a government becomes more vulnerable as the strength or size of the opposition bloc increases. The Compact in the fifth Senedd (2016-21) is an interesting illustration of this principle in practice. When met with a strong Plaid Cymru-led opposition bloc, Welsh Labour responded, through necessity, by entering into a quasi-formal agreement with Plaid Cymru to ensure support for its financial and legislative plans.
The choices facing Plaid Cymru
In the seventh Senedd, to reach the required forty-nine seats for a majority, Plaid Cymru (with 43 seats) will require an agreement with at least one political partner. Looking at the current share of seats, there initially appear to be a range of potential partners available: Reform (34), Welsh Labour (9), Welsh Conservatives (7), Wales Green Party (2), Welsh Lib Dems (1). However, as the new government’s experience has so far shown, this situation is proving less straightforward in practice.
First, the Welsh Labour experience in minority government displayed a relatively pragmatic approach to navigating changing political environments.
The ideological proximity between these parties means that there are now two political blocs within the Senedd, on the left and right of the political spectrum. Taken as one, the left bloc – Plaid Cymru, Welsh Labour, Wales Green Party and Welsh Lib Dems – constitute fifty-five seats. However, Senedd arithmetic means that Welsh Labour is the only party on the left who, alone, could provide the six seats required for a government majority.
This will become more complicated if Plaid Cymru pursue their manifesto commitment to introduce the Single Transferable Vote electoral system which would require a two-thirds majority in the Senedd in order to pass. This could not be delivered with the agreement of the left bloc alone.
The likelihood of relying on Welsh Labour is increased due to Plaid Cymru’s limited working relationship with parties in the right bloc. Rhun ap Iorwerth has previously ruled out working with Reform and, although the Welsh Conservatives may be open to an agreement, the group recently ruled out working with Plaid Cymru on its supplementary Budget. Therefore, on the current facts, Welsh Labour appears to be the only clear choice of potential partner available to the government. The reality of these circumstances exposes the government’s vulnerability and adds strength to Welsh Labour’s bargaining position in any negotiations.
Through its current approach, Plaid Cymru have sought to navigate this situation using substantive arrangements. Although still early days, this strategy has so far yielded less success in the Senedd. Going forward, if the lessons from previous Seneddau are to be followed, the government may wish to consider seeking a more formal arrangement – such as a multi-year Co-operation Agreement – with other parties, to increase its chances of legislative success in the seventh Senedd.
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