Derek Walker, Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, asks the new Welsh Government to pursue longer-term thinking in order to face future challenges now.
Our communities are demanding that our leaders and politicians make bold decisions to solve the challenges they face, including the cost-of-living crisis, climate and nature loss, and the rise in health inequalities. It is essential that the Senedd has the right people and structures to enable collaboration and generate creative solutions that work for current and future generations. That job must start now.
We all want to live a healthy life within a safe community where we are treated fairly. We want access to culture and green spaces and we want the skills to get fair work. I propose that Cymru can achieve these if all our political systems – including the Senedd – apply methods to support current and future generations. This will require new thinking and tools and, in some cases, re-imagining how we make decisions.
While the increase in the number of Senedd Members is an important step in strengthening Wales’ democratic capacity, we all know numbers alone will not determine whether it succeeds. More Members does not automatically mean better decisions — particularly when many of the challenges our communities face stretch far beyond electoral cycles.
Over the past 27 years the Senedd has grown, innovated and adapted. But this next chapter demands a real look at whether it has the right tools, structures and habits needed to make decisions not just for the next four years, but for the next 100.
Syniadau uchelgeisiol, awdurdodol a mentrus.
Ymunwch â ni i gyfrannu at wneud Cymru gwell.
If the Senedd is to be fit for purpose in this next era, it will need to do things differently. The Senedd will need to:
- Strengthen collaboration between public bodies to achieve efficiencies
- Reduce silo working to join up services for citizens
- Involve people in the decisions that affect them
- Focus more on preventing problems before they arise rather than on dealing with the consequences
- Put long-term thinking into the heart of how it works.
Wales and the Senedd are not starting from scratch. The Well-being of Future Generations Act already gives us a strong foundation — one that’s recognised around the world. As the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, my role is to work with new Members of the Senedd to build on that foundation and consider what more can be done to embed long-term thinking into how this institution works every day.
I have published a discussion paper to propose new ideas about how our politicians can be supported to make better decisions that take the needs of current and future generations into account.
This is a different moment — and the right one for new thinking
This new government will need to take early action to improve the food system, to ensure that energy produced in Wales benefits our communities, and that our environment is protected. Those actions will require strong scrutiny from Members of the Senedd, and the institution must be empowered to have the right mechanisms in place to do so.
One idea I am proposing is the creation of a Committee for the Future — a dedicated space within the Senedd where long-term trends, risks and opportunities can’t be ignored.
As we enter a new political chapter in Wales, there’s an opportunity to rethink not just who makes the decisions that affect your lives, but how those decisions are made. That includes how politicians work together and whether our parliamentary systems can deal with issues that are increasingly cross-cutting and long-term in nature.
One of the key ways in which issues are discussed, debated and addressed in the Senedd is via committees. A Senedd committee is tasked with examining specific areas of policy, legislation, or government activity in detail. Think of committees as the ‘engine room’ of the Senedd – where evidence is gathered, lived experiences are shared, and recommendations are made.
These committees are traditionally organised around individual ministerial portfolios. This helps with accountability in the short-term, but it is less effective when it comes to big, cross-cutting challenges like climate adaptation, intergenerational inequality, technological change, and demographic shift.
These challenges do not fit neatly into one portfolio, nor do they align with short-term political cycles. As a result, long-term consequences are not always fully examined at the point where decisions are made.
Gofod i drafod, dadlau, ac ymchwilio.
Cefnogwch brif felin drafod annibynnol Cymru.
A Committee for the Future
One idea I am proposing is the creation of a Committee for the Future — a dedicated space within the Senedd where long-term trends, risks and opportunities can’t be ignored.
A Committee for the Future would look at legislation and spending through a long-term lens, track progress against well-being goals and indicators, explore emerging challenges, and support other committees with foresight analysis.
Wales’ population is projected to grow modestly (~3.46 million by 2047) with the number of people in Wales aged 65 years or older projected to reach over one million by 2060. This could put additional pressure on the NHS and social care, especially in rural communities, which may see a higher number of older people.
We cannot simply leave it up to future generations to deal with the fallout and consequences. We need to start addressing and curbing them in the present.
By 2050, Wales could be looking at up to 3.4C increase in daily maximum temperatures, as well as a rise in sea levels of about 22cm, increased rainfall in winter and more frequent draughts in summer. The impacts of this on communities could differ by region with urban centres experiencing increased heatwaves and heat stress and increased flood risk for coastal communities and valleys. Climate change will also have an impact on Welsh identity through its cultural assets, 16% of which are already at risk of flooding.
By 2050, we are likely to be seeing increased remote working, more AI and automation across all sectors and a move towards digital public services. The decreased reliance on physical presence and spaces could provide a good opportunity for economic growth in rural areas and reduction in regional inequalities. Unintended consequences like digital exclusion have to be considered early on.
These projections are not set in stone, however, they are becoming more likely the longer we continue along our current trajectory. We cannot simply leave it up to future generations to deal with the fallout and consequences. We need to start addressing and curbing them in the present.
The new Senedd could also be assisted by the creation of a new Cross Party Group for Future Generations.
This is not about replacing existing Senedd committees. It is about strengthening all committees— ensuring that long-term consequences are consistently considered before policy choices become fixed.
My Future Generations Report highlights the need to take action on bridging the gap between policymaking and citizens. I would highly recommend that new deliberative democracy methods are also considered by the Senedd, and such approaches could be tested alongside a Committee for the Future.
Wales already leads internationally by having a law that requires our public bodies to consider the interests of future generations, but the law doesn’t apply to the Senedd. We are falling behind in how future generations are considered in the Senedd. This new committee would embed that leadership into parliamentary practice.
The new Senedd could also be assisted by the creation of a new Cross Party Group for Future Generations. A Cross-Party Group for Future Generations would provide a space for all political parties to collaboration and engage with evidence, experts, the voluntary sector, civic society and young people on long-term priorities for Wales. Its value would not lie in formal decision-making, but in building shared understanding on issues that extend beyond any single term of government. Over time, I believe such spaces help normalise long-term thinking within political culture.
A growing international shift
Across the world, parliaments are beginning to adapt their structures to better reflect long-term thinking. Finland’s long-established ‘Committee for the Future’ remains the most well-known example, but it is no longer unique. From Kenya to Lithuania, legislatures are experimenting with foresight units, committees, horizon scanning approaches, and intergenerational scrutiny models.
More recently the Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body has agreed to dissolve Scotland’s Futures Forum as a limited company and establish a futures thinking function directly within the Scottish Parliament.
There is a UK campaign, led by a coalition of over twenty civil society organisations advancing this agenda, lobbying UK parliamentarians to establish an All-Party Parliamentary Group and a Parliamentary Committee for the Future.
The direction of travel is not towards less long-term thinking in parliaments, but more — and towards embedding it more directly into democratic institutions.
My office is here to support the new Senedd as it makes decisions not just for the next four years, but that will have implications for the next 100 years. We have a scrutiny framework that can help Senedd members identify relevant questions. The latest Well-being of Wales (published annually) and the forthcoming Future Trends Report (produced within a year of an election) are additional resources to inform probing questions and insightful reports.
This election has been full of numbers. How many candidates stood. How many Members were elected. How many votes were cast.
But one number didn’t make the headline – 328,000. That’s the number of children who will have been born in Wales by 2047 (since 2022). They are a constituency who did not vote at this election, who do not currently have a voice. But it is important that the needs of our children, our grandchildren and great grandchildren are considered in the decisions which are now taken.
Wales has already shown what’s possible. Now is the moment to go further — and to make long-term action part of how our democracy works, every day.
