Latest referendum poll gives Yes side boost

Two to one majority in today’s ITV Wales Yougov poll confirms trend in favour of more powers for the National Assembly

Institute of Welsh Affairs

The latest poll on voting intentions in tomorrow’s referendum, undertaken by YouGov and published by ITV Wales today predicts there will be a more than two to one majority for the yes campaign. Compared with two previous polls carried out by YouGov in January and February, shown in the table below, the latest findings demonstrate a movement towards the Yes camp with a sharp drop in don’t knows.

The figures are weighted for likelihood to vote. If don’t knows are excluded then the Yes margin increases from 69 per cent to 31 per cent. This compared with 67 per cent to 33 per cent in the February poll.

YouGov tracking poll: If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers, how would you vote?

2 March 23 February 26 January
Yes

61

58

49

No

28

29

26

Don’t know/wouldn’t vote

12

13

26

Note: The January poll was undertaken for ITV Wales and the February poll for S4C’s Byd ar Bedwar current afairs programme

Since the beginning of the current Assembly term, in June 2007, the polls have seen a steadily increased margin of lead for the Yes side in the vote on more powers for the National Assembly. In June 2007 the lead was only 3 per cent. In June 2008 it was 7 per cent. The following summer it reached 10 per cent.

A turning point came in the Autumn of 2009 when the All-Wales Convention reported. Henceforward the polls for the Yes side started climbing steadily. It peaked at 27 per cent in a Yougov poll in June 2010 and then slipped to 16 per cent last August. However, since then the margin has steadily increased until it reached 33 per cent in today’s poll, the highest point in four years.

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