Updating the Welsh political barometer

Given there were no major national elections the past electoral year in Wales was busier than might have been expected. Much of the action was centred on Ynys Môn, where the Council’s election had been postponed from 2012 due to some ‘local difficulties’. When it occurred, one year late – in May 2013 – the election produced a rather mixed result.

As with a number of (mainly rural) local authorities in Wales, the Independent tradition remains strong on Môn, and after the election Independent councillors – of a variety of flavours – remained the strongest collective entity on the local authority. Of the political parties, by far the strongest performance was put up by Plaid Cymru, who managed to gain both votes and seats. Further details of the result can be seen here.

Looking ahead to 2014   Tomorrow: Jon Owen Jones speculates on what awaits the political parties in 2014.

Three months later, the attention of Welsh election watchers was firmly back on Ynys Môn. The decision of Ieuan Wyn Jones to stand down as an AM triggered a by-election – only the third ever to be held for the National Assembly (and the first in non-tragic circumstances). Given that Ieuan Wyn Jones had been the only Plaid candidate ever to win an election for Ynys Môn, the by-election looked potentially hazardous for his party. However, the selection of a well-known and effective candidate with a strong personal connection to Môn, the BBC journalist Rhun ap Iorwerth, combined with a strong local campaign by Plaid that built upon foundations laid in the council election, helped the party record a truly striking victory.

There were also thirteen by-elections during 2013 for seats across the 22 Welsh local authorities – results. The overall patterns are summarised in the following table:

Party	Total Votes (%)	Number of candidates	Seats Won	Net Gain/Loss	Average Swing#
Labour	5,514 (41%)	13	10	–	-11.4%
Conservative	1,028 (8%)	12	0	-1	-2.7%
Lib-Dems	1,062 (8%)	6	0	–	-1.0%
Plaid Cymru	2,320 (18%)	9	1	–	-0.2%
Others	1,127 (9%)	9	0	–	–
Independents	1,745 (14%)	10	2	+1	–

# Mean average swing from the previous election, for all by-elections where a party stood candidates in both the by-election and the previous election. This measure therefore does not include cases where a party failed to stand a candidate either in a by-election or the previous election. It has only been calculated for the four main parties.

Labour have clearly been the most successful party in winning seats. They have also been the only party to stand candidates in all by-elections. Interestingly, though, while Labour has remained well ahead of all other parties in votes and seats, its candidates experienced the largest average swings against them of any party. This largely reflects the fact that these by-election results are being compared with the 2012 local elections, where Labour did extremely well. Labour has also been less selective than other parties in terms of where it has fielded candidates. Nonetheless, these swings do suggest that Labour’s position in Wales is not wholly impregnable.

The Conservatives’ record in Welsh local elections has been notably poor for some time – standing in a peculiar contrast to their relatively robust opinion poll performance (see below). This trend continued throughout 2013. Despite fielding candidates in three more by-elections than Plaid Cymru, the Tories won fewer than half as many votes.

The Liberal Democrats have retrenched in terms of where they choose to fight locally. Yet even with this greater selectivity their vote fell slightly, and that in comparison with 2012 local election results in Wales that were distinctly poor for them.

Plaid Cymru’s local election presence remains somewhat patchy. So also does their performance where they stand. Plaid had one undoubted highpoint with their Penyrheol win in Caerphilly on the same night as Rhun ap Iorwerth’s triumph. Yet they finished the year by gaining merely 13 votes in a by-election in Torfaen.

There were three national opinion polls published in 2013: the results for general and National Assembly election voting intentions are summarised below (although note, as discussed here, that the question wording for the Assembly List vote was changed prior to the December poll):

UK General Election Voting Intention	Labour	Cons	Lib-Dems	Plaid	UKIP	Others
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013	51	22	9	10	7	2
WGC/YouGov, July 2013	48	23	8	9	8	4
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013	46	21	8	12	10	4
NAW Constituency Voting Intention
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013	46	21	10	17	5	1
WGC/YouGov, July 2013	46	19	8	17	6	3
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013	43	19	9	20	7	3
NAW Regional List Voting Intention
ITV-Wales/YouGov, February 2013	26	14	11	26	13	11
WGC/YouGov, July 2013	25	12	9	23	16	14
ITV-Wales/WGC/YouGov, Dec 2013	40	19	9	15	10	7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks to the new Welsh Political Barometer, we will receive more regular polling in future. The partnership behind the Barometer – ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre, and YouGov – intends to run the polls at least quarterly from now on. When examining these polls through 2014, there will a number of major things to look out for, in particular whether:

• The apparent slippage seen during 2013 in Labour’s poll ratings for Westminster and the Assembly constituency vote continues.
• The Conservatives can continue to hold their ground in Wales.
• The Liberal Democrats can start to turn around the dire poll ratings they have experienced in Wales almost since the ink dried on the UK coalition agreement.
• Plaid Cymru can build on the apparent slight lift in their poll ratings seen at the end of 2013.
• UKIP can continue to establish themselves as a significant force in Welsh electoral politics.

In addition to the European elections, 2014 will doubtless also have various local by-elections across Wales. And there will be the Scottish independence referendum in September – about which the only prediction I’ll make is that it will have some significant implications for Wales and Welsh politics, whatever the result.